Change from Libor to Saron: Uncertainty on the Swiss mortgage market

The replacement of the Libor had been looming since 2011
After manipulation of the Euribor was uncovered in 2011, suspicions arose in 2012 that over 20 major banks worldwide had also been deliberately manipulating the Libor for years. Due to its derivation, the Libor offered great potential for manipulation: the big banks report the average interest rates for which they can borrow money from other institutions. The banks do not have to provide any collateral and the lowest and highest interest rates are not included in the calculation. As a result of the manipulation scandal, the Saron (Swiss Average Rate Overnight) became increasingly important. In contrast to the derivation of the Libor, the Saron is calculated based on actual transactions (repo transactions) that are backed by collateral. As the Libor will only be calculated until the end of 2021 and the Saron has been set as the key interest rate for the Swiss currency area, many providers have been switching their mortgage business to Saron since the beginning of 2020.

The changeover is causing uncertainty among mortgage customers
In principle, the changeover only affects mortgage holders who have taken out a money market mortgage. Fixed-rate mortgages are not affected by the changeover. However, many banks had already limited their money market mortgages to a term until the end of 2021 for some time or completely removed mortgages with the reference interest rate from the Libor from their range. Money market mortgages based on the Libor must be converted to either a mortgage with the Saron as the reference interest rate or a fixed-rate mortgage by the end of 2021.

Changes of this magnitude usually fuel fears that customers could suffer disadvantages as a result. The replacement of the Libor by the Saron is no different. These are the concerns:

1. The financial institutions could use the changeover to achieve a higher margin for themselves. In a low interest rate environment, where both Libor and Saron are below zero, the customer only pays the bank’s margin on the Saron.
2. Mortgages with the Saron as the reference interest rate could cost customers more in the long term. The fact is that the Saron has been consistently above the daily Libor rate in recent years. This is despite the fact that Saron is significantly less risky because it involves effective, hedged transactions. However, this merely shows that the Libor with its estimated interest rates never correctly reflected the market. However, as the daily rates are not relevant for customers, only the three- or six-month rates are. And here the Saron has historically been significantly less volatile than the Libor and has always been below the Libor.
3. The uncertainty of how Saron mortgages could develop if the interest rate environment returns to positive territory. The existing Libor mortgages must be converted by the end of 2021. There is a very high probability that the interest rate environment will not have turned positive by then. It is therefore highly unlikely that there will be any changes for customers compared to Libor mortgages.